Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Steven Madden Ltd has demonstrated strong momentum in its branded business, achieving 11% revenue growth on a pro forma basis in 2025, with management expecting continued revenue gains in the mid-single digits to high-single digits for 2026. The company's Direct-to-Consumer segment experienced a significant surge, rising nearly 80%, largely driven by incremental sales from the Kurt Geiger brand. Additionally, the Q3 gross margin expanded 180 basis points to 43.4%, significantly outperforming both internal and consensus forecasts, further underscoring the company’s operational efficiency and positive financial trajectory.

Steven Madden Ltd is facing significant challenges, with its private label business contracting by approximately 15% to $355 million in 2025, and anticipated to decline by nearly 20% in 2026, further exacerbating revenue pressures. The company is also projected to experience a decline in operating margins to 6.2%, which is 50 basis points lower than market expectations and represents a substantial drop from 9.0% in the previous year. Additionally, the ongoing shift in sourcing away from China has led to shipment delays and a notable decrease in gross margins, which were down more than 300 basis points year-over-year in Q3, contributing to a negative outlook for the upcoming fiscal year.