Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Steven Madden is positioned for a favorable fundamental re-rating as fashion trends shift toward dressier footwear and the company gains share across flats, heels, boots, and Mary Janes, while core U.S. full-price sell-throughs and DTC momentum remain strong. Margin recovery also supports the outlook, with EBIT margin having fallen more than 400 bps to about 7% last year, pricing actions and mix improvements helping recovery, and management seeing room to recapture hundreds of bps over time as wholesale growth normalizes. Kurt Geiger adds another lever, with pro forma revenue growth up 23% in Q1, expected mid-teens growth for the year, and a premium profile that should lift margins and enhance earnings power.

Steven Madden is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as tariff pressure, declining U.S. consumer confidence, and tight inventory management by wholesale partners threaten both revenue and sell-in momentum. Wholesale customers have been “very cautious lately,” and if the company cannot offset the tariff headwind as expected, EPS could fall to as low as $1.75 next year, implying meaningful downside versus current expectations. Although revenue is modeled to rise ~12% in ’26 and ~7% in ’27, those gains depend heavily on DTC strength from the Kurt Geiger acquisition and a later wholesale recovery, leaving execution and macro risks elevated.