Surgery Partners (SGRY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Surgery Partners is viewed positively because the Idaho Falls divestiture sharpens its profile into a more focused ASC pure-play, removes a key investor overhang, and delivers about 30 bps of balance-sheet deleveraging while cutting Medicaid exposure to below 2%. The company also appears fundamentally attractive given its scale in underpenetrated ambulatory surgery, solid 2Q26 results with $849 million in revenue, $125 million of adjusted EBITDA, and +4.8% revenue per case growth driven by higher-acuity orthopedic, spine, and vascular procedures. Its outlook is further supported by strong physician recruiting, ongoing M&A execution, and favorable payer and site-of-care shifts that could sustain double-digit EBITDA growth over the long term.

Surgery Partners is facing a weaker fundamental backdrop as management cut guidance after the IdahoFalls divestiture, lowering revenue expectations to $3,080-$3,180MM from $3,350-$3,450MM and adjusted EBITDA to at least $489MM from at least $530MM. The pro-forma outlook still implies only $2.60-$2.67B of revenue and at least $414MM of EBITDA in full-year 2026, while estimates for FY26 and FY27 were reduced to $492.2MM and $443.0MM, signaling slower-than-expected earnings power. The negative view is further reinforced by high leverage, reimbursement pressure, labor cost inflation, revenue concentration, and the risk that elective outpatient volumes could weaken if macro conditions deteriorate.