SGI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Somnigroup International is supported by a compelling acquisition-driven earnings bridge, as the LEG transaction is expected to be EPS accretive before synergies and could add about $0.40 in Year 1, with roughly $0.30 more from $75M of synergies across sourcing, operations, and innovation. Management also raised 2026 guidance to $8.80-$8.85B of revenue and $1.51B of adjusted EBITDA, while still backing $5.15 of EPS by 2028, suggesting meaningful long-term earnings power despite softer mattress industry trends. The company’s omnichannel scale, premium brands, tighter supplier standards, and marketing emphasis on LEG’s U.S.-made components should strengthen product differentiation, support share gains, and help reduce leverage through improved cash generation.

Somnigroup International is facing a weaker fundamental outlook as full-year guidance was cut across the board, with expected global bedding industry growth revised to -MSD% y/y and net sales reduced by $200M to about $7.6B after intercompany eliminations. Adjusted EPS is now projected at $2.85-$3.15 versus $3.00-$3.40 previously, while all three segments saw lower sales-growth assumptions, including Tempur Sealy North America easing to +LSD%, International to +LSD%, and Mattress Firm slipping to slightly down. Although gross margin should remain above 45% thanks to about 100 bps of efficiencies and synergies, the lack of guidance inclusion for the LEG acquisition and the broader demand slowdown suggest execution and market conditions remain under pressure.