Sweetgreen (SG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sweetgreen has demonstrated strong performance in 2Q24 with same-store sales growth of 9%, an improvement from the 6%-7% range in the early part of the quarter, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand. The company's long-term guidance of 15%-20% net restaurant growth suggests ambitious expansion plans, projecting an increase of 50-67 net openings by 2027, which represents a significant ramp-up from the 25 openings planned for 2024. Furthermore, historical data shows that Sweetgreen has achieved a remarkable 20% same-store sales growth from Year 1 to Year 2 and 10% from Year 2 to Year 3, reinforcing its capacity for sustained financial performance.

The analysis highlights that Sweetgreen's expected same store sales for 2025 are likely to be flat, which may lead to a downward revision of guidance for the second consecutive year. Furthermore, data from Bloomberg Second Measure and Placer.ai indicate that the company experienced much weaker than anticipated sales for the second quarter, pointing toward a potential ongoing decline in performance. Given the already pessimistic estimates for future quarters, the outlook suggests a significant risk of continued negative same store sales throughout 2025.