Charles Schwab (SCHW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Charles Schwab is supported by powerful organic growth, with 3Q26 core net new assets up 38% YoY to a record $190.4B, client assets at $13.3T, and active brokerage accounts rising to 40.3M. Its outlook is strengthened by resilient monetization across brokerage, banking, and advisory, as bank loans grew 35% YoY to $72.3B, trading revenue rose 16%, and asset management and administration fees hit a record $1.91B, while operating margins expanded despite a softer near-term NIM. The company also has growing capital return capacity, with adjusted Tier 1 leverage at 7.0% and a path to materially higher repurchases as client cash dynamics, lending growth, and securities repricing improve earnings power.

Charles Schwab is facing a negative fundamental setup because management’s 4Q26E NIM guide of 3.15% to 3.20% implies less upside than investors expected, while the firm also now sees only modest improvement in interest-earning assets and a greater need for wholesale funding. The lower NIM outlook, combined with 2026FY revenue that only needs to beat the low end of the 17.5% to 18.5% guide and cost growth around 9.5%, suggests earnings leverage is less robust than hoped and risks renewed investor concern over execution. Key downside risks remain rising or falling rates, weaker client cash monetization, slower capital growth, and a deeper-than-expected balance-sheet contraction that could pressure ROTCE and cash-sweep revenues.