Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks is supported by an early-stage North America revitalization that is already showing strong same-store sales momentum, with 2026-28 NA SSS raised to 6.1%, 5.0%, and 4.0% and low-40% category share viewed as sustainable. Its outlook is further strengthened by margin recovery from easing coffee prices, sales leverage, and $2B of targeted cost savings, which together help lift modeled F2028 consolidated EBIT margins to 15.1% from 13.9% previously. Brand reinvigoration through operations, marketing, menu innovation, and loyalty should drive higher traffic and EPS, with F2026-28 EPS now estimated at $2.46, $3.23, and $3.94, about 6% above consensus.

Starbucks is facing a highly competitive limited-service market with pressure from large promotional chains and fast-growing beverage rivals, while also contending with scarce prime real estate and labor. Its margins are vulnerable to wage and commodity inflation, especially coffee at 10-15% of COGS and dairy at under 10%, and its heavy U.S. reliance leaves it exposed to any downturn in consumer confidence and discretionary spending. Although F2026 calls for 1,000+ remodels under the coffeehouse uplift program, the expected sales lift appears modest for a business that is about 70% drive-thru, and risks remain tied to weaker macro conditions, slowing traffic in China and/or the U.S., and equipment overhaul disruption.