Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks demonstrates a positive outlook due to notable improvements in key performance metrics, including a return of lapsed rewards members and a sequential increase in international same-store sales growth, particularly in China. The company's revenue estimates for 2026 have been upgraded as higher sales from company-operated stores offset declines in licensed and channel development segments, indicating resilience in its core operations. Additionally, the anticipated recovery in customer traffic towards pre-pandemic levels, coupled with a more efficient cost structure, supports the potential for improved margins and profitability.

Starbucks is facing a negative outlook primarily due to anticipated larger year-over-year declines in earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter, driven by ongoing restructuring charges and necessary investments that are projected to persistently pressure profit margins. The effectiveness of the new CEO's strategies in driving traffic growth remains questionable, while the company also expects challenges in its channel development segment, as higher input costs are likely to lead to increased prices and dampened demand. Additionally, the firm forecasts lower revenue and profitability due to anticipated volume pressures, compounded by mid-teens reductions in EPS estimates for the latter part of the fiscal year.