Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks demonstrates a robust financial outlook, with same-store sales improving by 3.8% in North America and 2.5% internationally in FY26, driven by increased transaction volume and enhanced customer experience through food attachment and customization. The company is also on track for notable new store growth, with approximately 1,360 new openings anticipated this year, representing a 3.3% increase, and an expected 1,920 new stores in FY26, showcasing a commitment to expansion despite a slowing pace in major markets. Additionally, an anticipated 5% sales growth in FY26 could yield licensing revenue of around $130 million, reflecting Starbucks' strong positioning in both retail and licensing segments.

Starbucks's financial outlook has been negatively impacted by reduced revenue expectations resulting from the closure of 438 underperforming stores in North America, which contributes to a forecasted decline in company revenue. The projected growth rate for international company-owned units has been revised down to 5.1%, indicating a slowing expansion compared to previous years, and the overall growth forecast for total company-owned units is now estimated at approximately 3%. Additionally, economic challenges, promotional missteps, and rising coffee costs present risks that could further weaken sales, particularly in key markets such as Japan and the United States.