Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks is poised for strong growth, projecting new store openings of approximately 1,375 in FY26, which represents a 3.3% increase, supported by robust unit expansion internationally. The company reports positive same-store sales increases of 3.8% in North America and 3.3% internationally, reflecting a recovery in sales driven by strong performance in markets like China. Additionally, Starbucks anticipates margin recovery due to sales leverage, further enhancing the brand's perception and driving both sales and earnings upside as it rebuilds its pipeline following previous closures.

Starbucks faces several headwinds that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, including the potential for overearning in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be indicated by the company's decision to increase labor hours. There are also concerns regarding weakening sales in key markets such as Japan and the U.S., as well as deteriorating consumer perceptions of value and quality, which may impact same-store sales negatively. Additionally, macroeconomic challenges, slowing traffic in both China and the U.S., and potential disruptions from operational issues further threaten the company's financial performance and stability.