Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks demonstrates a strong outlook supported by an improvement in same-store sales, which increased by 3.8% in North America and 2.5% in international markets, indicating positive transaction recovery and customer traffic trends. The company is also experiencing substantial growth in its store footprint, with an expected addition of approximately 1,360 new stores in the current year and a projected 1,920 in FY26, reflecting ongoing expansion despite slowdowns in major markets. Additionally, the notable increase in value perception scores across various demographics suggests a favorable shift in consumer sentiment, further bolstering investor confidence.

Starbucks faces a significant negative outlook primarily due to substantial margin erosion, with the operating margin reported at 180 basis points below estimates and a notable 730 basis points decline in the North America segment compared to the previous year. This deterioration has led to lowered earnings per share (EPS) and adjusted EBITDA estimates for FY2026 and FY2027, attributed to weaker-than-expected same-store sales (SSS) in the U.S. Additionally, economic challenges, promotional missteps, and prolonged traffic weakness in key markets, particularly the U.S. and China, alongside rising coffee costs, further compound the firm’s financial difficulties.