SBA Communications (SBAC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SBA Communications is poised for positive financial performance, supported by an acceleration in leasing application activity, which reached its highest level in 4Q24, indicating potential revenue growth that may surpass current forecasts. The company's significant presence in the U.S. market, combined with anticipated demand from mobile 5G deployment and the ongoing buildout of new facilities, suggests a robust outlook for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth moving forward. Additionally, expectations of increased amendment activity from major carriers like AT&T and Verizon signal a resurgence in revenue drivers, further bolstering SBA's growth potential in the telecommunications infrastructure sector.

SBA Communications is experiencing potential challenges that contribute to a negative outlook, particularly due to its concentrated customer base, where most revenue is derived from a few major mobile carriers. The company's downside scenario indicates that factors such as slower growth in site leasing revenues, increased churn, and foreign exchange pressures could significantly impact its projected performance, with an anticipated AFFO multiple reduction. Additionally, the strength of the dollar is expected to pose material headwinds, further complicating SBA's growth prospects in 2025 and beyond due to anticipated pressures on revenue and EBITDA.