SAIC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Science Applications Intl is supported by a strong combination of revenue momentum, margin expansion, and cash generation, with Adj. EBITDA of $193m rising 4.3% y/y, FCF of $131m, and revenue of $1.88b to $1.9b beating expectations on ~5% organic growth. Its core Defense and Intelligence business is improving through normalized on-contract growth (+9%) and better execution, while Civilian also posted solid top-line growth, helping offset timing and mix pressures. Management’s raised guidance for FY27 EBITDA and EPS, plus a multi-year margin improvement plan targeting ~$150m in annual run-rate savings and mid-10% to 11% margins, reinforces a favorable fundamental outlook.

Science Applications Intl is viewed negatively because its business is heavily concentrated in U.S. government contracting, leaving revenue and cash flow exposed to defense budget disruptions, procurement rule changes, shutdowns, and award delays. Competitive pricing pressure, staffing challenges, and slower-than-expected contract ramp-up could further weaken execution, while the delayed RITS roll-off and Vanguard/Evolve recompete create a meaningful overhang on FY28 results. Although the F3Q roll-off timing may provide a $65M-$70M F2Q revenue tailwind, management still expects initial task orders in FY27 and analysts see only flattish FY28 revenue growth versus Street expectations of +1.5%.