Saia (SAIA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Saia has demonstrated impressive operational growth with ramping facilities achieving over 100 basis points increase in margins sequentially in the third quarter of 2025, resulting in an optimal operating ratio for the first time at less than 95. The company has consistently improved its consolidated operating ratio by 20 basis points compared to the previous quarter, despite rising expenses, indicating effective cost management alongside volume growth. Additionally, contract renewals are yielding over 4% average growth, and Saia is successfully enhancing its market share within the competitive LTL space while benefiting from positive industry pricing dynamics.

Saia has reported a year-over-year decline of 0.1% in headline revenue per hundredweight (CWT) ex-fuel, primarily due to unfavorable mix changes and operational inefficiencies within a growing network. The company's operating ratio (OR) has deteriorated by 250 basis points, coupled with limited yield growth and one of the highest ORs among its non-union less-than-truckload (LTL) peers, contributing to stock underperformance within the transportation sector. Additionally, a notable decline in both tonnage and shipments by 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, indicates a weakening demand environment that poses further challenges to future profitability.