iStar Inc (SAFE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Safehold is attractive because its modernized ground-lease model combines long-duration, highly durable rent streams with the highest credit claim seniority and eventual building ownership at lease expiration, giving it strong downside protection. The company has also shown it can pivot effectively, shifting away from office exposure toward multifamily and affordable housing, with 111 multifamily assets representing about 44% of gross book value as of 2Q26 and multifamily exposure up over 50% in the last three years. Its smaller, delayed-funding transactions, low-4% cap rate asset sales, and recurring 2% annual rent growth, plus potential upside from CARET units and CPI-based revisions, support a favorable fundamental outlook.

Safehold is viewed negatively because its long-duration ground lease model is highly exposed to rising Treasury yields, higher funding costs, and a less liquid capital markets backdrop that can slow deal flow and compress investment spreads. Its unrealized capital appreciation pool of about $9.8B is vulnerable to annual appraisal declines, while lower origination volumes, earnings dilution from the Brookfield joint venture, and weaker hotel and office fundamentals could pressure 2026 EPS of $1.60 and 2027 EPS to $1.67 or lower. The stock’s reliance on capital access, rate-sensitive balance sheet, and potential litigation and tenant/default risks make growth harder to sustain, especially when shares already appear to reflect a safety premium.