Rayonier (RYN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rayonier has reported a notable 17% year-over-year increase in harvest volumes, bolstered by acquisitions completed in late 2022, demonstrating effective growth strategies. For 2024, the company has projected an Adjusted EBITDA of $290-325 million, indicating a modest increase of approximately 3.7% year-over-year, and surpassing both consensus estimates and prior guidance. Additionally, improved pricing expectations for domestic and export sawtimber, along with an anticipated stabilization in pulpwood pricing fueled by stronger paper packaging markets, further support a positive outlook for the company's financial performance.

Rayonier's financial outlook appears negative due to a higher-than-expected tax rate, resulting in earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13, which fell short of the forecasted $0.15 but was above the consensus estimate of $0.11. The company's timber realizations demonstrated significant year-over-year decreases, with delivered sawtimber and pulpwood prices dropping by 10% and 56%, respectively, driven by declining domestic and export demand, as well as increased competition from pulp mills. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA of $6 million was below the anticipated $8 million, compounded by a decrease in non-timber and carbon credit sales, which declined to $7.7 million from $9.1 million in the previous quarter.