Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The financial analysis highlights a significant increase in Sunrun's subscriber value, which rose to $55.8k, driven primarily by enhanced battery attachment rates and a higher Investment Tax Credit (ITC) level of 39.8%. Furthermore, the company's balance sheet demonstrates resilience, enabling continued growth in installed storage capacity and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase in contracted subscriber value, as well as over a 30% rise in net value, despite flat customer growth compared to the prior year. Sunrun's management projects that subscriber value will continue to outpace customer creation costs in 2025, bolstered by ongoing improvements in battery attachment rates and effective cost control measures.

Sunrun's financial outlook has been negatively affected by a decrease in revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026, with projected revenues adjusted down to $2.30 billion and $2.65 billion, respectively, based on lower solar growth assumptions. The company's cash generation target for FY 2025 was significantly lowered by 26% to a midpoint of $350 million, influenced by a slower ramp in domestic content ITC adders, higher costs, and reduced volume expectations. Additionally, customer growth has stagnated, forecasted to be flat compared to previous expectations of 10-15% annual growth, compounded by lower ITC rates and increased interest rates impacting cash generation and overall financial stability.