Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sunrun's net value creation has experienced a significant increase of 225% year-over-year, prompting the company to raise its guidance for net value creation to a range of $1.0 to $1.3 billion, up from a previous estimate of $650 to $850 million. The management anticipates securing the balance of volumes through 2030 ahead of the July 2026 anniversary of recent legislation, indicating confidence in future growth prospects. Coupled with its robust customer acquisition strategy, utilizing a multichannel approach that includes direct marketing and strategic partnerships, these factors contribute to a positive outlook for the company's performance.

Sunrun reported cash generation of $27 million in the second quarter, which fell significantly short of its guidance range of $50 to $60 million, raising concerns about its financial performance. Despite affirming a full-year guidance of $200 to $500 million for FY 2025, the company’s reliance on customer agreements may be jeopardized by a potential rise in the cost of capital, as suggested by a downside valuation assuming an 11% discount rate for future customer payments. This combination of lower-than-expected cash generation and uncertainties in capital costs contributes to a negative outlook for Sunrun's stock.