Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sunrun reported a sequential increase in subscriber value, rising to $55.8k from $51.2k in the previous quarter, driven by enhanced battery attachment rates and a higher investment tax credit (ITC) level. Management anticipates that subscriber value will continue to exceed customer acquisition costs, with expectations of 5-15% year-over-year growth, despite flat customer growth compared to the previous year's range. The company's balance sheet remains robust, supporting its growth trajectory, as evidenced by a 9% increase in contracted subscriber value quarter-over-quarter and a significant year-over-year growth forecast for installed storage capacity.

Sunrun's projected revenue for 2025 has been modestly decreased to $2.30 billion from $2.32 billion, reflecting a lower solar growth assumption and contributing to a negative outlook. Additionally, the company's cash generation target for FY25 has been revised down by 26% to $350 million, primarily due to slower domestic content ITC adders and increased costs, resulting in reduced customer growth expectations. Factors impacting Sunrun's outlook include a shift from anticipated 10-15% customer growth to flat growth, lower ITC rate expectations, and higher interest rates, which all suggest challenges in meeting financial targets.