Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sunrun has reported a remarkable 225% year-over-year increase in net value creation, with revised guidance projecting a range of $1.0 to $1.3 billion, up from a previous estimate of $650 to $850 million. The company's management anticipates securing volumes through 2030, well ahead of the July 2026 anniversary of relevant legislative enactments, indicating strong future demand. Additionally, Sunrun's robust customer acquisition strategy, leveraging both direct marketing and strategic partnerships, further supports its positive growth trajectory in the residential solar market.

The analysis identifies a key concern regarding Sunrun's financial performance, as the company's second-quarter cash generation of $27 million fell significantly short of its guidance of $50 to $60 million. Despite affirming its full-year 2025 cash generation range of $200 to $500 million, the underlying weak performance raises questions about the company's ability to meet these future projections. Additionally, the potential for a more punitive 11% discount rate due to rising costs of capital for solar providers indicates increasing financial pressures that could adversely impact Sunrun's valuation.