Riskified Ltd (RSKD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Riskified Ltd demonstrated a strong performance with a notable increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), which rose 8.9% year-over-year to $37.8 billion, marking the first sequential acceleration in four quarters, particularly driven by the Travel and Money Transfer & Payments categories. The company also revised its 2025 revenue guidance upwards, increasing the bottom end of the outlook by $2 million to $336 million, reflecting positive expectations for continued growth. Additionally, significant growth was reported in the Money Transfer and Payments vertical, which surged 90% year-over-year, alongside notable international traction with regions such as APAC and EMEA growing by 40% and 23% respectively.

Riskified Ltd faces significant financial challenges due to its reliance on a concentrated customer base, where churn events could lead to substantial growth setbacks. Additionally, a slowdown in the macroeconomy and an intensely competitive fraud prevention market could hinder the company's ability to attract new merchants and retain existing subscriptions, leading to weaker future performance. The recent decline in growth within the fashion and luxury sector, a key vertical for Riskified, raises further concerns about potential financial losses linked to mismanaged chargebacks.