Republic Services (RSG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Republic Services demonstrated robust financial performance, with solid waste AEBITDA reaching $1.295 billion, reflecting a margin of 34.3%, an increase of 150 basis points year-over-year. The company's event-driven volume contributed $36 million in sales during the third quarter of 2025, underscoring its ability to capitalize on market demands despite facing headwinds from fuel and recycled commodities pricing. With a reported free cash flow of $771 million, up 32% year-over-year, and expectations for continued revenue and margin growth, Republic Services is poised for further expansion as it navigates the evolving waste management landscape.

The financial outlook for Republic Services appears negative due to significant declines in recycled commodity prices, which averaged -29% year-over-year, coupled with a 7% decline in Environmental Solutions revenue and a substantial 26% decrease in EBITDA, reflecting ongoing weaknesses in manufacturing and lower landfill volumes. Furthermore, the company faces a projected $100 million revenue headwind by 2026 from the absence of event-driven work, contributing to expectations of flat to slightly declining volume. Additionally, despite a slight revision in revenue guidance, the forecast for EBITDA margin expansion has been reduced to a mere 10 basis points, primarily influenced by unpredictable high-margin project revenues and ongoing headwinds in commodity pricing.