RRR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance, with Las Vegas revenues and EBITDA showing year-over-year increases of 6% and 7%, respectively, in 2Q25 and 1% and 3% in 3Q25, alongside notable margin expansions attributed to broad-based strength across both rated and unrated databases. The company is also seeing robust growth in new member sign-ups by approximately 10% year-over-year, which reflects increased customer engagement and spending. Additionally, the planned $385 million expansion of the Durango property and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders through a dividend increase further underscores the company’s positive strategic outlook and operational efficiency.

Red Rock Resorts is projected to experience approximately a 10% sequential contraction in EBITDA from the second to the third quarter of 2025, largely influenced by ongoing construction disruptions at its properties, which are expected to generate around $10 million in EBITDA headwinds in the fourth quarter. While management has expressed comfort with a leverage ratio of 3.89x, the potential impacts of observed weaknesses on the Las Vegas Strip raise concerns about the resilience of demand in the local market. Additionally, despite the company's share repurchase activity, these operational challenges and external market pressures contribute to a negative outlook for the stock.