RRR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Red Rock Resorts Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance with Las Vegas revenues and EBITDA increasing by 6% and 7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, driven by improved participation across its customer segments. The company experienced a notable 10% year-over-year increase in new member sign-ups, indicating a growing customer base and robust engagement, particularly among VIP and unrated players. Additionally, the projected growth for discounted free cash flow is anticipated to rise by 12% in 2026 and further by 8% in 2027, suggesting a solid foundation for future investment and expansion.

Red Rock Resorts is projected to experience a ~10% sequential contraction in EBITDA from 2Q25 to 3Q25, indicating potential difficulties in maintaining profitability amidst challenging market conditions. Furthermore, anticipated slower EBITDA growth in the Las Vegas Valley in the second half of 2025, declining from +5% in 1H25 to -1%, suggests a weakening operational environment. Additionally, the rising interest rates may hinder project financing and refinancing of debt, potentially leading to earnings dilution and maintaining leverage above 3x in the medium term.