RRR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Red Rock Resorts has demonstrated a solid upward trend in both Las Vegas revenues and EBITDA, reporting year-over-year increases of 6% and 7% respectively in 2Q25, supported by a margin expansion of approximately 50 basis points. The company has also seen a 10% rise in new member sign-ups and strong participation from its rated database, indicating robust demand and operational efficiency, as evidenced by a 110 basis point increase in margins in 3Q25. Additionally, the firm is committed to returning capital to shareholders, as highlighted by its decision to increase its quarterly dividend amid ongoing development projects, including the anticipated $385 million second phase expansion of the Durango property.

Red Rock Resorts is projected to experience a sequential EBITDA contraction of approximately 10% from the second to the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to ongoing construction-related disruptions at the Green Valley Ranch and Sunset Station properties. Furthermore, the company faces an estimated $10 million in EBITDA headwinds from these disruptions in the fourth quarter, which adds to overall financial strain. Despite a decrease in leverage to 3.89x, concerns persist regarding potential impacts from the broader Las Vegas Strip market weaknesses, which could affect the local market in the future.