TransCode Therapeutics (RNAZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TransCode Therapeutics has commenced its first clinical trial for its lead therapeutic candidate, TTX-MC138, which demonstrates increased activity in later cohorts, indicating a potentially favorable pharmacokinetic profile. The trial has shown promising initial durability, with 67% of patients from the initial cohorts remaining on study for multiple cycles, highlighting the therapy's potential to achieve long-term patient survival. Additionally, the observation of high levels of target inhibition even at micro doses suggests an effective mechanism of action, bolstering confidence in the candidate's commercialization prospects for treating cancer.

TransCode Therapeutics's stock outlook appears negative primarily due to the high level of risk associated with its lead therapeutic candidate, TTX-MC138, for which the probability of success (PoS) is estimated at only 15% for breast cancer and 10% for both pancreatic cancer and glioblastoma. Additionally, the company faces significant challenges, including potential safety issues from clinical programs, the possibility of lower-than-anticipated efficacy, and strong competition from existing or emerging treatments. Compounding these risks, TransCode is anticipated to require additional financing by early 2025, and the company's microcap status along with low trading volume presents further hurdles, including the risk of de-listing if share prices fall below $1.