RKLB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rocket Lab USA Inc. has demonstrated a robust growth trajectory, with FY24 revenue estimates increased to approximately $431 million, reflecting a strong contribution from Space Systems and an elevated average selling price for Electron launches. Projections for FY26 and FY27 have also been revised upwards to about $1.1 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively, driven by the expected incorporation of Neutron launches into the company’s operational model. The company's strategic positioning in the expanding space economy, along with its proven launch track record and leadership under CEO Sir Peter Beck, further bolster the outlook for sustained financial performance and profitability.

Rocket Lab USA Inc. has experienced a substantial decline in its stock price, down approximately 28% year-to-date, which significantly underperforms compared to the broader market indices within the Aerospace & Defense sector. The company faces multiple challenges, including high execution risks associated with its planned acquisition of Mynaric, which has been plagued by production issues impacting program timelines and causing delays for critical contracts such as the SDA Tranche 1 program. Additional financial concerns stem from an expected EBITDA loss guidance of ($27M)-($29M), as well as a reliance on government contracts in an environment marked by inconsistent demand and competitive pressures within the space industry.