Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rigetti Computing is viewed positively because its commercial traction is improving, with 2Q billings at a company high, deferred revenue up $2.5M QoQ on customer prepayments, and 1Q26 revenue above the Street’s estimate as multiple system sales were recognized. Its balance sheet also looks resilient, with $541M in cash, no debt, and the potential for up to $100M in CHIPS Act funding over three years, giving it liquidity to fund R&D, fabrication equipment, and dilution refrigeration while reducing near-term financing risk. Fundamentally, progress on the Cepheus 108 platform—99.1% median 2-qubit gate fidelity now, a path toward ~99.5% by year-end 2026, and general availability across major cloud platforms—supports the view that its chiplet-based scaling architecture could drive larger orders and longer-term quantum advantage.

Rigetti Computing is burdened by intense competition from IBM, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, whose scale, capital, and cloud infrastructure could leave a smaller quantum player unable to defend share as the market matures. The company also faces an uncertain adoption curve and meaningful execution risk, while operating fab buildouts are expected to require roughly $200M in capex over the next three years, which may force additional financing. Although customer traction is improving with about $5.7MM in Novera orders and a planned Cepheus-1-108Q delivery by 4Q26, the business still projects substantial losses through 2030 and may need new funding before an estimated breakeven in 2031.