REXR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rexford Industrial Realty's performance demonstrates a solid upward trajectory, highlighted by a 50 basis point increase in same-property occupancy to 96.6% as of August 31, reflecting strong market demand and effective property management. This growth includes 40 basis points of positive net absorption, indicating a healthy expansion of the tenant base, while the YTD average occupancy of 96.1% supports the stability of its portfolio. Furthermore, the company's forecasted Funds From Operations Per Share (FFOPS) estimates have been revised upward, with projections increasing from previous estimates to $2.40, $2.47, and $2.52 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, showcasing a favorable long-term financial outlook.

The fundamental outlook on Rexford Industrial Realty's stock appears negative due to several macroeconomic factors, including the potential for a deep recession, which could lead to weakened demand for industrial space and reduced business activity. Additionally, the company may face challenges in its growth strategy owing to a lack of acquisition opportunities and ongoing high-interest rates, which generally depress REIT valuations. Market dynamics, such as nearshoring/onshoring trends and a decline in institutional and foreign capital flows, further exacerbate the risks, particularly affecting Southern California's industrial real estate landscape, as evidenced by slowing rent growth and increasing availability rates.