The RealReal (REAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The RealReal, as the largest pure-play luxury resale platform in the U.S., is projected to achieve a gross merchandise volume of $1.8 billion in 2024, indicating robust market demand for personal luxury resale. Key performance indicators such as active buyers increasing by 23,000 quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the largest sequential growth since Q4 2022, alongside an Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 5.4%, underscore the company's financial resilience and operational improvements. Furthermore, with a healthy increase in new and repeat consignors, combined with enhanced sales team productivity, The RealReal is well-positioned to capitalize on consumer trends towards resale, which bodes positively for future revenue growth and profitability.

The RealReal's sales projections for 2026 may decline by 10% to 15% due to challenges in expanding its consignor base and a potentially diminishing allure for luxury items, influenced by lack of innovation and high price points. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainties could further reduce consumer discretionary spending, adversely impacting the company’s ability to attract both consignors and buyers. The competition from unverified resale platforms poses a risk to The RealReal's market share, as consumer interest in pre-authenticated luxury goods may wane.