The RealReal (REAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The RealReal reported a substantial increase in key performance indicators, with active buyers growing by 23,000 quarter-over-quarter, marking the largest sequential increase since the fourth quarter of 2022, and reaching over 1 million, an all-time high. The company’s revenue increased by 17%, despite a slight year-over-year compression in take rates, driven by a shift toward higher-value items, and its operating expenses showed significant leverage, enhancing the adjusted EBITDA margin by 380 basis points year-over-year to 5.4%. The positive outlook is further supported by ongoing growth in new and repeat consignors, improved sales team productivity, and the promising trajectory of free cash flow expansion as capital expenditures stabilize and operating efficiencies are realized.

The RealReal's stock is facing a negative outlook primarily due to anticipated sales declines, with projections indicating a potential drop of 10%-15% in 2026 sales below current estimates. Several factors contribute to this decline, including challenges in expanding the consignor base through marketing, a decrease in consumer interest in luxury goods, and heightened competition from platforms that do not require pre-authentication. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions and concerns over counterfeit goods could further jeopardize the company's reputation and ability to attract both consignors and buyers, which are crucial for maintaining market share.