The RealReal (REAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The RealReal has established itself as the largest pure-play luxury resale platform in the United States, projecting a gross merchandise volume of $1.8 billion in 2024. The company employs a hands-on approach for inventory sourcing and item authentication, which allows it to command significantly higher take rates of approximately 36% of net merchandise value. With a focus on a supply-driven strategy and growing investor confidence in achieving sustained positive EBITDA, there is potential for an expansion of valuation multiples, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's financial performance.

The RealReal is facing a challenging outlook for 2025, with projected sales declining 15%-20% below analyst estimates. Competing platforms, such as Vestiaire Collective, Rebag, and Fashionphile, demonstrate substantially lower take rates in the range of 4%-7%, which may further hinder The RealReal's market competitiveness. Additionally, the company risks losing market share to competitors that do not utilize a pre-authentication model, compounded by a potential decline in consumer interest in the resale luxury segment.