RCL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Royal Caribbean Group has demonstrated a significant positive trajectory, with Return on Capital (ROC) increasing from 13.80% to 15.40% over the last twelve months, and a forecasted further rise to 18.03% in the near term. The company's net sales revenue has shown substantial growth, rising 12.10% year-over-year, from $15.33 billion to $17.18 billion for the twelve months ending June 2025. Additionally, Economic Profit (EP) has surged by 31.64% year-over-year, escalating from $1.19 billion to $1.57 billion, reinforcing the company's strong financial performance.

Royal Caribbean Group faces significant headwinds affecting its financial outlook, notably due to adverse weather conditions and political unrest impacting key destinations, which have negatively influenced EPS guidance for FY25 by approximately $0.05. Management's revised NCCx guidance suggests a decline in expected unit cost growth, with projections indicating "anemic" cost growth for FY26, despite anticipated increases in capacity and private destinations. Furthermore, the recent forecast of adjusted EPS reflects amplified growth expectations that may not align with underlying headwinds, leading to selling pressure as investor confidence appears shaken by misalignment between expectations and reality.