Rogers Communications (RCI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rogers Communications is supported by resilient core telecom demand, with Q1/26 results in line to slightly ahead of expectations and 2026 FCF guidance revised higher on lower capex, reinforcing a stronger free-cash-flow profile. Service revenue grew to 1,938, helped by Internet subscriber gains and disciplined pricing, while equipment revenue improved to 560 on higher device upgrades and a shift to higher-value devices, and media revenue rose to 988 on MLSE, the Toronto Blue Jays, and new channel launches. The outlook is further strengthened by balance-sheet de-levering, a completed $7B structured equity investment, a low dividend payout ratio of under 30% of FCF, and the potential to monetize sports and media assets as leverage moves toward ~3x.

Rogers Communications is facing a weaker fundamental setup because its wireless growth is being offset by mobile phone ARPU declines in a highly competitive market, with downside risk tied to greater ARPU pressure, lower wireless network margins, and softer postpaid net additions. The company also looks vulnerable on broadband, where FTTH competition could reduce Internet revenue and subscriber growth while limiting the ability to sustain cable revenue growth and further margin expansion. In addition, a prolonged economic downturn, irrational wireless pricing, and higher-than-expected capex intensity could compress multiples on a lower-growth trajectory, while the dual-class share structure keeps control concentrated with the Rogers family.