RCEL Stock Forecast & Price Target

AVITA Medical is anticipated to experience modest high-single-digit growth in its burn centers and trauma centers, with an increase in productivity per surgeon projected at approximately 3.2%. The company has successfully reduced cash usage to around $6.2 million in Q3, down from $10.1 million in Q2, while amending its credit agreement to adjust a revenue covenant to $70 million for Q4. With clinical evidence supporting RECELL's efficacy and cost-effectiveness compared to standard of care, coupled with reimbursement stabilization expected to enhance utilization growth, AVITA is positioned to capitalize on its market opportunities effectively without significant additional spending in the near term.

The financial outlook for AVITA Medical is negative, as the company has revised its full-year 2025 revenue expectations downward to $70 million to $74 million, indicating a significant drop from the previous guidance of $76 million to $81 million. This adjustment reflects ongoing challenges, including declining productivity per surgeon and anticipated lower demand and utilization, which has prompted further revisions in future revenue projections. Additionally, persistent issues related to reimbursement from third-party payers, a limited capital position, and the historical trend of diminishing guidance contribute to the overall unfavorable assessment of AVITA Medical's stock performance.