Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc. reported a robust 36% year-over-year growth in Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), reaching $1.252 billion, surpassing the market expectations of $1.230 billion, which reflects strong demand for its data security solutions. The company’s customer base has expanded to 2,505 clients spending over $100,000 in ARR, indicating that Rubrik is effectively strengthening its position as a strategic partner for enterprises in the cyber resilience market. Additionally, the net new subscription ARR reached $71.0 million, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, with a strong net revenue retention rate remaining above 120%, further supporting a positive outlook for the company.

Rubrik Inc. forecasts a FY26 earnings per share (EPS) range of ($0.50) to ($0.44), which, despite being above Street expectations of ($0.97), still reflects a negative bottom-line projection that raises concerns about profitability. The company anticipates a subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) contribution margin of approximately 7.0%, which, while an improvement over prior guidance, indicates persistent challenges to achieving more robust financial performance. Additionally, even though predicted free cash flow of $145.0 million to $155.0 million exceeds Street estimates of $73.7 million, the overall financial outlook remains cautious, with significant uncertainties surrounding sustained growth and operational efficiency.