Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc. has demonstrated strong financial growth, with a significant increase in FY26 revenue forecasts raised to $1,280 million, indicating projected year-over-year growth of 44% compared to a previous estimate of 39%. The company's Q3 subscription revenue reached $336.4 million, reflecting a robust 52% year-over-year growth and surpassing prior estimates, driven by increased non-recurring revenues from cloud conversions and maintenance. Furthermore, the expansion of its large customer base, with a 27% year-on-year rise in customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue, underscores the firm's ability to thrive in a competitive market and contribute positively to its overall financial health.

Rubrik's outlook reflects a concerning trend, with guidance indicating an anticipated 18% decline in net new subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) year-over-year, despite a prior increase in the most recent quarter. Furthermore, the company is facing challenges as its subscription ARR contribution margin is expected to decrease quarter-over-quarter, with a sequenced decline projected through the upcoming fiscal quarters before recovery. Additionally, enduring large losses on the income statement, accompanied by significant risks such as macroeconomic factors, competitive pressures, and potential disruptions in technology and manufacturing, contribute to the negative sentiment surrounding the stock.