Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc has demonstrated robust financial performance, reporting Q3 subscription revenue growth of 52% year-over-year, which significantly exceeded prior estimates and consensus projections. The company is increasing its FY26 revenue forecast to $1,280 million, reflecting a 44% year-over-year growth, while also anticipating improved operating margins. Additionally, the growth in customers generating over $100K in subscription ARR, rising by 27% year-over-year to 2,505, underscores the strong demand for Rubrik's data security solutions amid favorable market conditions.

Rubrik Inc. is projected to experience an 18% decline in net new subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) year-over-year for F3Q26, despite a previous 13% increase in 2Q, indicating potential weaknesses in subscription growth. Furthermore, the company anticipates lower subscription ARR contribution margins in FY1Q27, highlighting concerns over expense management and sequential revenue fluctuations in the subsequent quarters. Additionally, persistent large losses on the income statement coupled with various key risks—such as macroeconomic factors and intensified competition—raise significant concerns about the company's future performance and financial health.