Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc. experienced a robust 36% year-over-year growth in Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), reaching $1.252 billion, surpassing the Street's estimate of $1.230 billion, indicating strong demand in the cyber resilience market. The company successfully expanded its customer base, increasing the number of clients spending over $100,000 annually to 2,505, reflecting its growing traction among enterprise customers. Additionally, the net new subscription ARR of approximately $71 million, up 13% year-over-year, along with a net revenue retention rate exceeding 120%, highlights Rubrik's effective customer transitions and solidifies a positive outlook for sustained growth.

Rubrik Inc. is projected to have a subscription ARR contribution margin of approximately 7.0%, showing modest improvement from the previous guidance of 6.0%. However, the company's FY26 earnings per share (EPS) forecast remains in the negative range of ($0.50) to ($0.44), which is substantially better than the market expectation of ($0.97). Despite a projected free cash flow of $145.0 million to $155.0 million significantly exceeding the Street's estimate of $73.7 million, the ongoing negative EPS outlook may hinder investor confidence and raise concerns about long-term profitability.