Restaurant Brands (QSR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Restaurant Brands International (RBI) reported robust growth metrics, with Tim Hortons' comparable store sales (comps) increasing by 2.2%, while Tim Hortons Canada experienced a 2.5% rise in traffic, marking its 15th consecutive quarter of growth. The company also noted impressive international growth, particularly with Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen and Tim Hortons, achieving increases of 24% and 15% respectively, despite net closures in China for Burger King. Furthermore, RBI's strategic capital allocation plan for FY25 emphasizes substantial investment in remodels and development, alongside a notable 6.9% increase in its quarterly dividend, reflecting strong financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Restaurant Brands International has lowered its 2025 estimated net restaurant growth to 3.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges, particularly in the Burger King China market, where issues have led to increased bad debt expenses and a miss in fourth-quarter adjusted operating income. Additionally, the company faces potential market share losses due to intensifying competition and deteriorating value perceptions among lower-income consumers, which could impact sales, especially for Burger King. The firm's long-term development plans are also at risk, as current growth rates remain below the targeted 5% benchmark, compounded by concerns over macroeconomic conditions and rising operating costs.