PRVA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Privia Health Group Inc. has demonstrated a robust growth trajectory, with the addition of 125 providers anticipated by the end of 4Q25, indicating strong demand for its physician-enablement services. The company experienced a notable 9% increase in practice collections per provider during 3Q25, marking one of its strongest quarterly performances in recent years, driven by expansion in new markets and valuable contributions from its Medicare Advantage and value-based care portfolios. Furthermore, ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and the reduction of administrative burdens for physicians are expected to support sustained fee-for-service growth, positioning Privia Health favorably as it continues to ramp up operations in emerging markets like Arizona.

Privia Health Group Inc faces a challenging outlook due to projected declines in Medicaid enrollment, driven by re-determination activities following the end of the public health emergency. Industry estimates indicate an anticipated 8%-10% reduction in Medicaid membership by year-end on a same-store basis, contributing to a sequential decline in EBITDA from a strong third quarter performance. Furthermore, seasonality typically suggests a quarterly increase in enrollment, but a forecasted 2% decline contradicts this trend, signaling potential operational vulnerabilities for the company.