PRVA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Privia Health Group Inc. has demonstrated strong growth by adding 125 providers as of the fourth quarter of 2025, exceeding earlier expectations and contributing to an increase in fee-for-service (FFS) practice collections per provider for the fiscal year 2025. The company reported a sequential rise of approximately 9% in practice collections, amounting to around $80 million, driven by record profitability in its capitated Medicare Advantage book and broader value-based care portfolio. Additionally, ongoing enhancements in operational efficiency and the support provided through practice consulting are expected to bolster provider productivity and patient throughput, further strengthening the company's financial outlook into 2025.

Privia Health Group Inc is facing a negative outlook primarily due to expected declines in Medicaid enrollment, with a projected decrease of 8%-10% in membership by year-end, influenced by re-determination activities post-public health emergency. This anticipated decline is predicted to lead to a sequential drop in EBITDA following a previously strong third quarter, contradicting typical seasonal trends. Furthermore, the company's guidance indicates an overall expected decrease of 2% quarter-over-quarter, diverging from the usual growth pattern typically seen during this period.