Primoris Services (PRIM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Primoris Services is viewed favorably because the six challenged renewables projects appear increasingly contained, with five already at mechanical completion and the sixth tracking for 4Q, reducing the risk of further surprise charges. The broader Energy business looks structurally healthier, as management reaffirmed 6%-8% gross margin in 3Q, 8%-10% in 4Q, and 10%-12% in FY27, while Energy ex-renewables is already near the high end of that range and supported by roughly $800-900M of incremental gas work in 2H26. The outlook is further strengthened by record backlog of $13.86B in 2Q26, a more disciplined project portfolio, and a $100M share repurchase in 3Q26 that signals confidence in earnings normalization and cash generation.

Primoris Services is viewed negatively because repeated guidance resets on the same renewables projects have exposed execution problems, with an estimated $192M of cost overruns and 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin falling to 3.8%, undermining confidence in the recovery. Its renewables revenue is expected to drop to roughly $2.0B in 2026 from $3.0B in 2025, while implied market share slips to 5.9% from 9.4%, suggesting competitors are capturing growth and that share loss may persist. Although the stock trades at a discount, the discount is warranted by weak 2027E margins, lower ROIC, poor cash conversion, rising customer concentration, and backlog that leaves earnings highly exposed to project timing and execution risk.