PROG Holdings (PRG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PROG Holdings Inc. has demonstrated impressive financial growth, with its quarterly gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue increasing year-over-year by averages of 198% and 382%, respectively, since the first quarter of 2024. The company's initiatives in developing its platform have allowed significant expansion in both the Progressive Leasing and BNPL segments, with the latter achieving a GMV growth of 163% in the third quarter of 2025. Moreover, as PROG leverages operating efficiencies and incremental margins from its initiatives, revenue growth is expected to improve, positioning the company favorably for a potential re-rating of its shares.

The negative outlook on PROG Holdings's stock is primarily driven by the exit of a significant retail partner, which resulted in an estimated $160 million reduction in annual Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), constituting approximately 8.5% of leasing volume and correlating with a 19% decline in the active customer base. Additionally, persistent weakness in consumer spending, particularly for larger-ticket items, has led to tighter underwriting standards aimed at mitigating credit losses, further impacting GMV and overall profitability. Given the ongoing pressure in the leasing segment and anticipated headwinds from negative macroeconomic consumer trends, the prospects for growth in PROG's core lease-to-own business appear bleak.