PRAX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Praxis Precision Medicine has seen a notable increase in the probability of success (POS) for its drug candidate relutrigine, elevating it from 60% to 80% and significantly raising projected peak sales from $760 million to $2.8 billion. Additionally, the company's drug PRAX-628 is anticipated to capture a larger peak market share due to its favorable clinical profile, potentially enabling its use in earlier lines of therapy and enhancing treatment persistency compared to current standards of care. Furthermore, positive data from the EMBOLD study, which demonstrated substantial improvements in seizure reduction over 11 months, along with a constructive pre-NDA meeting with the FDA, strengthens the company's outlook as it prepares for anticipated filings in early 2026.

Praxis Precision Medicine's stock outlook appears negative due to a higher-than-expected dropout rate that prompted management to adjust the primary endpoint, raising concerns about the validity of the trial results. The observed modest effect size of -4.3 on ulixacaltamide compared to -1.7 on placebo, combined with a low probability of approval at 25%, suggests potential efficacy issues in the company's lead product candidate. Additionally, the futility conclusion reached at the interim analysis casts doubt on the reliability of the final data, contributing to an overall skepticism regarding the company's ability to deliver marketable therapies.