Post Holdings (POST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Post Holdings Inc. is poised for a positive outlook primarily due to the expected increase in F26E EBITDA, which is being bolstered by the strategic acquisition of 8th Avenue Foods, reflecting an efficient purchase price at less than 7x EBITDA after factoring in potential synergies. Additionally, the company's significant cash reserves of approximately $625 million as of March 31, 2025, provide flexibility for future acquisitions or stock buybacks, further enhancing its financial health. A modest rise in the net debt to EBITDA ratio, from 4.5x to 4.6x post-acquisition, indicates the company’s ability to manage its debt levels prudently while still pursuing growth opportunities.

Post Holdings Inc is experiencing significant sales declines attributed to multiple factors, including elasticities from Gravy Train higher pricing, which contributed a ~2 percentage point hit, and the discontinuation of private label co-manufacturing, resulting in a ~3-4 percentage point drop. Additionally, the weakness in the Nutrish brand, which is currently undergoing a brand refresh, accounted for another ~2 percentage point decline. Given these challenges, the company's sales growth estimate has been revised downward from -4.0% to -8.5%, alongside a reduction in the F3Q25 EBITDA forecast from approximately $193 million to $184 million, indicating ongoing operational difficulties.