Post Holdings (POST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Post Holdings Inc. is projected to experience a significant boost in its F26E EBITDA, primarily driven by the acquisition of 8th Avenue, which is anticipated to enhance the company's earnings despite not yet accounting for the potential synergies. The acquisition, valued at less than 7x EBITDA for approximately $115 million, is expected to result in notable earnings per share (EPS) accretion, supported by the company's substantial cash reserves of around $625 million as of March 31, 2025. Additionally, Post Holdings maintains strategic flexibility for future growth initiatives or share buybacks, with a modest increase in net debt/EBITDA from 4.5x to 4.6x post-acquisition, further underpinning a positive financial outlook.

Post Holdings Inc. is experiencing significant sales declines attributed to several factors, including price elasticity impacts from higher pricing on Gravy Train, the discontinuation of private label co-manufacturing, and ongoing weakness in the Nutrish brand. The company has revised its sales growth estimate downward from -4.0% to -8.5%, reflecting these persistent challenges in its consumer packaged goods operations. Additionally, projected EBITDA for F3Q25 has been decreased from approximately $193 million to $184 million, highlighting deteriorating financial performance and potential ongoing headwinds in retail sell-through.