Pool (POOL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Pool is attractive because its earnings are anchored by a resilient maintenance business that represents about 65% of sales, offsetting the current weakness in discretionary new pool construction, which has fallen to roughly 60k annualized units versus a normalized 80k average. The company is also gaining share above the market in CY25 and 1H26, supported by building materials gains of about 1% and planned sales force initiatives later this year that should help sustain outperformance as the market remains soft. Fundamentally, its installed-base model, through-the-cycle gross margin near 30%, and operating leverage from existing capacity and slower greenfield expansion support a stronger midcycle earnings profile and justify a positive outlook.

Pool is vulnerable to a softer demand backdrop because 18% of pool industry spending is discretionary, so a recession or weaker consumer confidence could quickly pressure replacement and renovation activity. Rising rates also threaten home turnover and financing affordability for R&R projects, while unseasonably cold or wet weather can suppress seasonal sales across its U.S.-led distribution network. That weakness is reflected in the lowered 2Q26-driven estimates, with CY26 adj. EBITDA cut to $654.8 million from $663.6 million and CY27 adj. EPS reduced to $11.68 from $12.16, alongside ongoing execution and competition risks.