Planet Fitness (PLNT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Planet Fitness Inc. demonstrated robust growth by concluding 2024 with 19.7 million members, an increase of 1.0 million year-over-year, which highlights the company's effective membership strategy. The financial performance showed significant revenue growth of 10.3%, surpassing the guided range, alongside a 12% year-over-year increase in both adjusted EBITDA and net income, reinforcing its strong operational efficiency. Additionally, the rise in Black Card membership penetration to 64% and an increase in average selling prices further reflect the company’s ability to enhance revenue streams while managing attrition effectively.

The financial outlook for Planet Fitness Inc. appears negative primarily due to an anticipated decline in free cash flow in 2025, driven by significant capital expenditure growth despite the company managing to maintain net leverage below 3x post-share repurchases. Additionally, the company's guidance suggests only 10% total sales and EBITDA growth with expectations of flat margins, which has raised concerns among investors after comparing performance to prior estimates. Other factors such as reduced membership acquisition estimates, disappointing corporate club profits, and potential challenges in franchisee economics further contribute to a cautious outlook on the company's financial viability.