Planet Fitness (PLNT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Planet Fitness is supported by a highly franchised, recurring-revenue model that provides stability in a still-uncertain macro backdrop, with revenue coming largely from franchise royalties, corporate store membership dues, and equipment sales. Recent operating trends also point to improving fundamentals: revenue beat consensus by 2.4%, SSS rose 1.7%, EBITDA beat by 1.0%, and Black Card mix reaccelerated to 67.9% in Q2, helping offset softer Classic Card pricing and supporting higher average monthly dues. The company’s scale, >2,300 domestic clubs versus a 4,000+ long-term goal, strong unit economics, and rising NPS, which was up 9 points y/y, suggest better retention, member growth, and franchisee demand ahead.

Planet Fitness is facing a weaker fundamental setup because same-store sales are expected to decelerate sharply in 2H, with management’s roughly 1% FY guidance implying near-flat comps and more than 100% of growth coming from price rather than membership gains. The bear case is reinforced by softer net joins, elevated churn at 3.8% in Q1, and marketing that missed the core beginner and casual consumer, while the paused Black Card price increase and a $10/month promo add uncertainty to pricing power and could pressure rate. Competitive intensity, especially in select U.S. markets, plus evidence that Summer Pass participation is only tracking in line year over year, suggests demand is slowing just as operating leverage and revenue quality weaken.