Planet Fitness (PLNT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Planet Fitness is supported by a durable, highly franchised model with roughly 90% of revenue tied to recurring and stable sources, including franchise royalties and corporate store membership dues, which helps insulate cash flows in an uncertain macro backdrop. Bulls also point to improving operating momentum, as Black Card mix reaccelerated to 67.9% in Q2, NPS rose 9 points y/y, and management can still benefit from higher premium conversion, better retention, and renewed unit growth from new franchisee activity in Florida. Even after softer net joins and a pause in Black Card price increases, the company’s scale, >2,300 domestic clubs, and long-term path toward 4,000+ domestic clubs underpin a constructive view on growth and earnings resilience.

Planet Fitness is facing a softer demand backdrop, with Q1 net adds of 700k below Street expectations and per-club members down 1.8% y/y, while Q1 attrition at 3.8% sat near the high end of the historical range. Management lowered FY26 guidance to system-wide same club sales growth of +1%, revenue growth of +7%, and adj. EBITDA growth of +6%, reflecting weaker joins, elevated churn, and a pause in Black Card pricing. The outlook is further pressured by competitive pricing in key markets, marketing that has not resonated, and uncertainty around upcoming pricing tests and campaign changes.