PARR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. is experiencing a positive outlook due to significantly stronger-than-expected refining margins in key regional markets, with indicators increasing in Montana and Washington to $21.36 and $12.03 per barrel, respectively, compared to previous quarters. Additionally, the earlier-than-anticipated completion of the turnaround at the Wyoming refinery is expected to further enhance operational efficiency and output. Consequently, revised estimates for 2Q25 show a notable increase in EPS and EBITDA projections, reflecting an expected EPS of $0.84 and EBITDA of $106 million, along with a substantial improvement for FY25 to $1.64 in EPS and $327 million in EBITDA.

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. faces significant headwinds that contribute to a negative outlook, primarily stemming from anticipated capital expenditures, which are projected to decrease from approximately $225 million in FY25 to a normalized $105 million in FY26, indicating potential financial strain. The company's risks are exacerbated by reduced demand for jet fuel in Hawaii, weakening dynamics in niche markets, volatility in product crack spreads, and growing concerns over Asian refining margins, which could lead to diminished profitability. Furthermore, limited liquidity and a lack of interest from generalist investors could hinder the company's ability to navigate these challenges effectively.