ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding AG is experiencing robust brand momentum, supported by strong product innovation and expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) initiatives, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth of 20-25% in fiscal year 2026, followed by 15-20% growth in fiscal year 2027. The company's focus on increasing brand awareness and securing shelf space with leading sneaker retailers positions it well for sustained top-line growth, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to expand by approximately 50 basis points annually. With expectations of high sell-through rates and a potential for revenues to exceed current forecasts significantly, On's financial outlook remains promising as it continues to capitalize on its market presence and operational efficiencies.

The analysis indicates that On Holding AG's stock faces significant downside risk due to its high valuation multiples, which could lead to profound declines in share prices if growth slows as projected. A decrease in growth to the low-to-mid 20% range for 4Q25 and sub-20% in FY26 could result in revenues falling 5% below targets, coupled with a potential decline in adjusted EBITDA by approximately 100 million CHF. Furthermore, external factors such as a challenging promotional retail environment, increased promotional discounts, and broader economic risks including rising interest rates and weaker consumer confidence could adversely impact margins and overall financial performance.