ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding is viewed positively because its growth is still being led by premium core categories, with roughly 75% of the ~2 billion CHF it plans to add by FY29 expected to come from Run, Sneakers, and Apparel, while new opportunities in Golf and Global Football, including the Kylian Mbappe signing, broaden the runway. Financially, management expects at least 5.6 billion CHF of revenue in FY29 with a gross margin of at least 65% and adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 22%, supported by SG&A leverage, a more balanced regional mix, and DTC rising to about 50% of sales from ~42% in FY25. The outlook is further strengthened by evidence of brand momentum and disciplined channel execution, including higher full-price selling, improving U.S. wholesale sellout, store productivity that has risen 1.5x since 2023, and a plan to expand the fleet to about 180 stores while maintaining selective wholesale growth.

On Holding is vulnerable if its growth trajectory “hits a wall,” because its lofty valuation depends on sustaining strong sales momentum while the business is already heavily concentrated in athletic shoes and North America, which generated 58% of 2025 sales. A more promotional retail backdrop, softer DTC demand, and reduced brand heat could force greater markdowns, limiting gross margin expansion to less than 150 bps in 2026 and risking SG&A deleverage of about 130 bps as spending on selling, marketing, and G&A rises. With competition intensifying, tariff pressure building, and limited margin expansion expected beyond 2026, the stock’s downside could be severe if growth slips below the sub-20% range in FY26 and FY27.