BeiGene Ltd (ONC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BeOne Medicines is poised for strong revenue growth propelled by anticipated partnerships from the launches of zanidatamab and tarlatamab in China, alongside sustained performance of established products such as Xgeva, Kyprolis, Blincyto, and Pobevcy. The company’s core oncology drug, Brukinsa, currently generates over 60% of its revenue, with additional growth potential in lymphoma indications that could yield approximately $650 million in sales by 2034, supported by a favorable ~50% response rate. Furthermore, BeOne's innovative drug development strategies, including next-generation approaches, are expected to bolster topline growth despite pricing pressures in the market.

BeOne Medicines faces a negative outlook primarily due to slower-than-expected product uptake and challenges in successfully advancing its pipeline programs, particularly in solid tumors and drugs like sonrotoclax or '673, which could hinder future revenue growth. Revenue projections are further complicated by potential misses, as evidenced by the recent first-quarter revenue of $792 million falling short of the $837 million consensus estimate, raising concerns about the sustainability of Brukinsa's sales momentum. Additionally, the reliance on a significant portion of revenue from partnerships in China, which is projected to decline from 12% to approximately 5% by the 2030s, may not sufficiently offset these risks and could diminish future cash flow stability.