Omeros (OMER) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Omeros is viewed favorably because Yartemlea’s U.S. launch is already showing strong commercial traction, with 2Q sales of $28.5M, 74 unique ordering accounts by 2Q, and roughly 75% of orders coming from adults, suggesting broadening adoption beyond a handful of centers. The case is further strengthened by expected reimbursement tailwinds from the permanent J-code on July 1 and NTAP starting October 1, which should reduce friction and support a launch that appears capable of reaching about 35-40% U.S. market share and ~$400M peak sales without relying on Europe. Even with the negative CHMP opinion, Europe is largely absent from current estimates, so the downside appears limited while any reversal could add incremental upside, and the NVO partnership provides an additional independent long-term value driver.

Omeros is highly exposed to narsoplimab, and the recent CHMP negative opinion on the MAA for TA-TMA meaningfully weakens the near-term European path to approval, reducing confidence in a key value driver. The company also faces substantial competitive pressure from better-resourced large and small peers, while regulatory review risk means even positive clinical data may not translate into approval or revenue. With no upfront partnership assumed, the loss of the EU opportunity, ongoing R&D spend, and pipeline or development setbacks could delay profitability and lower overall valuation.