OMDA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Omada Health Inc. experienced a robust total revenue growth of 49.5% year-over-year, largely driven by surpassing member estimates with 831,000 members by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a significant 52.8% year-over-year increase. The company achieved an impressive gross profit margin expansion of 297 basis points year-over-year to reach 68.2%, supported by improved program mix and enhanced operational efficiency through AI integration. Additionally, with a potential growth trajectory exceeding 35% for FY25 and strengthening relationships with notable pharmacy benefit managers, Omada Health is well-positioned for continued financial success and market share growth within the evolving healthcare landscape.

Omada Health Inc. has experienced a significant reduction in adjusted operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, dropping from 121.1% in FY’22 to 80.5% in FY’24; however, the outlook remains cautious due to expected flatness in quarterly average revenue per user (ARPU) post-2025. Potential declines in demand for the company's GLP-1 CareTracks, driven by safety concerns or negative publicity, may further pose risks to financial performance, compounded by the volatile nature of corporate healthcare plans covering these medications. Additionally, the company faces competitive pressures and potential relationship deterioration with partners, which could impact growth visibility and long-term scalability, alongside economic downturns potentially reducing enrollment momentum.