Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc. forecasts net sales of $426.0 million for 3Q25, reflecting a modest increase of 0.8% year-over-year, with expectations for higher growth in Q4 driven by the professional channel's engagement in holiday initiatives and upcoming product innovations. The company has recorded solid year-to-date growth in international markets, with net sales up approximately 2%, supported by enhanced commercial investments and strategic planning to increase market share. Additionally, Olaplex's gross margin has considerably improved, surpassing prior expectations due to disciplined cost controls, contributing to a positive adjusted EBITDA performance for the period.

Olaplex Holdings Inc. has experienced a notable decline in specialty retail sales, which decreased by 13.5% year-over-year to $36.9 million, resulting in a year-to-date sales drop of 6.8%. The company's operating margin pressure is significant, anticipated to reach 24.1%, down from 36.3% a year earlier, while revenue projections remain flat year-over-year at approximately $422 million and adjusted EBITDA margins are forecasted to fall to 21.3%. Furthermore, with expectations of high single-digit sales declines in Q3, primarily due to earlier DTC pull-forward effects and changes in holiday shipment distribution, the company's financial outlook appears concerning, particularly regarding gross margin contractions and overall profitability.