OGN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Organon & Co is positioned for positive growth, particularly with its VTAMA product due to anticipated gross-to-net improvements and robust volume increases following recent label expansions in atopic dermatitis. The company's management noted a potentially aggressive sales target of approximately $150 million for 2025, reinforced by access improvements and reduced reliance on coupon support, which could lead to significant quarterly growth in the second half of 2025. Additionally, the company's stable management of selling, general, and administrative expenses further indicates a controlled operational environment supportive of profitability.

Organon & Co has faced a significant decline in its stock value, dropping approximately 57% since announcing the acquisition of Dermavant last September, which raises concerns about its financial stability. The company's updated valuation methodology reflects a reduced EV/EBITDA multiple of 7x, down from 8x, indicating increased skepticism regarding future performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. Additionally, despite a slight increase in estimated EBITDA for 2026 to $1,956 million, the lack of visibility into meaningful EBITDA growth further contributes to a negative outlook on the company's stock.