ODD Stock Forecast & Price Target

ODDITY Tech is supported by a durable underlying brand franchise even as 2Q26 remains pressured by elevated acquisition costs, lower first orders, and management’s 25%-30% revenue decline outlook alongside $8mm-$10mm adjusted EBITDA guidance. The 28% sequential improvement in IL MAKIAGE CPA in May suggests the CPA disruption may be temporary, while management’s view that the largest advertising partner could restore 40%-60% of lost efficiency supports a path back to healthier growth. In addition, METHODIQ’s strong launch is expected to generate $25M in revenue this year, ODD Labs remains a clear differentiator, and cost actions help underpin management’s target for positive Adjusted EBITDA for FY26.

ODDITY Tech is viewed negatively because its core IL MAKIAGE business is being hit by an advertising-algorithm disruption that pushed ads into lower-quality auctions, more than doubled customer acquisition cost, and reduced visibility into when growth can recover. Management gave no FY26 top-line guidance, while the bears now expect a 22% revenue decline in FY26 to about $623 million and only $6.6 million of adjusted EBITDA, underscoring severe margin compression and weak operating leverage. Although May showed a roughly 28% sequential CAC improvement, the recovery appears uncertain and may take several quarters, leaving FY26 revenue and profitability dependent on an unproven fix rather than durable demand.