ODD Stock Forecast & Price Target

ODDITY Tech is attractive because its underlying brands remain resilient, with repeat purchasing holding up even as management works through a technical CPA dislocation and a shift to a standard purchase model that has preserved unit economics. The company’s fundamentals are further supported by cost actions aimed at delivering positive Adjusted EBITDA for FY26, while METHODIQ is emerging as a growth driver and is expected to generate $25M in revenue this year, following a launch late last year. Capital allocation is also constructive, as ODD repurchased $82M of shares in 1Q26, approved a $200M authorization, and continues to expand its differentiated ODD Labs pipeline with new molecule-based products.

ODDITY Tech is viewed negatively because its largest advertising partner’s algorithm change pushed ads into lower-quality auctions, more than doubling customer acquisition costs and sharply weakening advertising efficiency. The disruption drove 1Q26 net revenues down 26% year over year to $197.9 million, with AEBITDA of $(7.0) million, and 2Q26 guidance calls for another 25% to 30% revenue decline and only $8 million to $10 million of AEBITDA, well below expectations. With management offering no top-line guidance for FY26, visibility on recovery remains low, and the resulting pressure on repeat sales, margins, and growth makes the business look structurally more fragile despite signs the issue may be temporary.