OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

OceanFirst Financial Corp has demonstrated a solid financial performance with a 7% increase in core fee income, reaching $12.3 million quarter-over-quarter, and a 12% growth in core pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) to $31 million. The company's net interest income (NII) also showed strong growth, rising by $3 million to $90.7 million, and is projected to continue increasing by high-single digits, supported by expectations of a net interest margin (NIM) of approximately 3.00% or higher in the first half of 2026. Additionally, loan growth of 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to $10.558 billion underscores a positive trajectory, driven primarily by increases in commercial and industrial loans, as well as non-owner occupied commercial real estate.

OceanFirst Financial Corp is facing potential headwinds that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily due to expected modest declines in net interest margin (NIM) driven by net deposit growth targets priced above current rates, which could hinder profitability. Additionally, the company’s reliance on fee income from outsourcing its residential and title platform, alongside lower net interest income forecasts due to the anticipated contraction in NIM in 4Q25, points to decreased overall earnings potential. Furthermore, the risk of credit losses increasing due to a downturn in regional economies—where many of its customers are located—amplifies concerns regarding future profitability amid rising unemployment and a weakening housing market.