NEXTracker Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextpower demonstrated strong financial performance in Q3, with revenue reaching $909 million, reflecting a 34% year-over-year increase and exceeding consensus estimates by approximately 12%. The company's focus on the U.S. market yielded significant growth, as domestic revenue accounted for 81% of total revenue, with a remarkable 63% year-over-year increase, highlighting a strategic shift towards high-reliability solutions. Furthermore, the strong backlog exceeding $5 billion and favorable projections for non-tracker revenue growth at a 4-year CAGR of approximately 40% underscore the company's robust positioning in the utility-scale solar market, particularly in the MENA region.

Nextpower's management has provided guidance for FY'27 revenue of approximately $3.7 billion, which is about 3% below their previous forecast and approximately 6% below sell-side consensus, signaling a concerning trend. Additionally, FY'30 revenue guidance is set at $5.2 billion, also falling short by around 2% compared to prior expectations, alongside an anticipated adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion that is roughly 13% below consensus estimates. These projections indicate a potential struggle for Nextpower in achieving financial targets, raising concerns about its competitive positioning against both tracker vendors and diversified electrical equipment companies in the evolving market.