NXST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nexstar Media Group has demonstrated significant financial growth, with a year-over-year increase in EBITDA of 40%, reaching $628 million, driven primarily by robust political advertising spending which exceeded prior election cycles. The company anticipates continued revenue growth, estimating revenues of $4.9 billion, supported by stable retransmission revenues and an expected improvement in core advertising revenue due to recovery in the market and the resurgence of sports programming. Additionally, the upcoming renewal of carriage agreements with a substantial portion of its customer base is projected to accelerate distribution revenue growth, further solidifying Nexstar's financial outlook.

Nexstar Media Group's financial outlook appears negative primarily due to anticipated stagnation in net retransmission revenues, which are expected to remain flat through 2025 after fewer renewals in 2024. Additionally, the advertising environment has been challenging, demonstrated by a year-over-year decline of approximately 9.2% in ad revenues, excluding political contributions, further exacerbated by a reduction in pay TV subscriber numbers. Lastly, while Nexstar recorded a lower SG&A expense contributing to profit growth, fourth-quarter EPS fell short of expectations due to an impairment charge and higher tax rates, highlighting ongoing financial pressures.