NXST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nexstar Media Group demonstrated significant financial strength with a year-over-year increase in EBITDA, reporting $628 million, a 40% rise that surpassed expectations, largely driven by heightened political advertising revenues, which outperformed previous cycles. The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of $4.9 billion, bolstered by stable retransmission revenue and anticipated improvements in core advertising revenues, particularly with the reinstatement of sports programming, which traditionally attracts higher ad rates. Additionally, Nexstar's strategic plans to renew carriage agreements with a significant portion of its subscriber base are expected to further enhance distribution revenue growth beginning in 2026, providing a stable financial outlook for the firm.

Nexstar Media Group is anticipated to face challenges, as net retransmission revenues are expected to remain flat in 2025, indicating a stagnation in revenue growth from a critical segment of its business. Additionally, the ad environment remains turbulent, with ad revenues dropping by approximately 9.2% year-over-year, which could further strain the company's financial performance. Although the firm has a relatively low net leverage ratio of 2.91x, the combination of flat distribution revenue trends and disappointing fourth quarter earnings—underscored by an impairment charge and higher tax rates—signals potential difficulties ahead.