Novocure (NVCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

NovoCure is supported by a stronger commercial trajectory, with 2Q26 revenue of $183.6MM rising 16% y/y and active patients reaching 5,128 globally, while gross margin expanded to 78% from 74% y/y. The core GBM franchise is still growing, but the more important fundamental shift is evidence that Optune Lua and Optune Pax can broaden the platform, as Lua gained traction in Japan and Pax delivered 418 prescriptions and 285 active patients in its first full quarter. Management also improved the financial profile by raising FY26 revenue guidance to $710-$725MM, lifting expected Lua/Pax contribution to $20-$30MM, and cutting about $90MM of R&D spending, all while advancing multiple regulatory and clinical catalysts that could support durable multi-indication expansion.

NovoCure is facing a modestly negative fundamental setback after TRIDENT missed its primary overall survival endpoint in 981 newly diagnosed GBM patients, with 17.7 months versus 17.5 months and no new safety signals, suggesting earlier TTFields initiation did not clearly improve outcomes. The result weakens the case for near-term GBM growth because the study enrolled a higher-risk population and reduces the incremental upside from moving therapy earlier, while still leaving Optune Gio’s established maintenance role intact. Even so, the broader thesis is cushioned by durable survival in both arms and management’s other growth drivers, especially the Optune Pax pancreatic launch with about 900 certified prescribers, though long-term GBM estimates are being lowered.