Nutrien (NTR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nutrien, formed from the merger of PotashCorp and Agrium, is positioned as the world's largest fertilizer producer with significant market shares in potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, enhancing its revenue potential. The company is experiencing steady growth due to structural improvements in its retail business, particularly in Brazil, alongside increasing adoption of higher-margin products and biologicals, which are expected to contribute to margin recovery and improved cash conversion. Furthermore, favorable market dynamics, such as rising crop prices and increased demand from key markets like Brazil and China, support a positive outlook for Nutrien’s financial performance in the near to mid-term.

Nutrien's stock faces a negative outlook due to several fundamental challenges, including a projected decline in ammonia margins, which are expected to decrease by 36% to a notional margin of $235 per ton over the next 16 months. Additionally, Nutrien's mid-cycle EBITDA multiple has sharply decreased from 8.0x to approximately 6.5x, reflecting reduced investor confidence amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures, including a significant drop in China's urea exports and rising uncertainties about tariffs impacting crop input expenditures. Furthermore, despite cost savings and decreasing production costs in potash, the overall sentiment around nitrogen margins appears weak, particularly as conditions in key markets like Brazil remain stagnant.