NRGV Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Vault Hldgs is viewed favorably because its 2Q26 results showed strong operating momentum, with revenue of $17.4 million up 104% Y/Y, GAAP gross margin at 31.0%, and adjusted gross margin at 38.6% despite higher opex from scaling. The company’s backlog expanded to about $2.0 billion, and the newly signed 1.25 GW hyperscaler contract is expected to add $500 million to $600 million of revenue through the end of 2027, improving visibility and validating its integrated power, storage, and software platform. Management also raised 2026 revenue guidance to $270 million to $310 million and gross margin guidance to 20% to 25%, while cash grew to $148 million, supporting the view that execution and liquidity are both strengthening.

Energy Vault Hldgs is pressured by tariff and sourcing volatility, with its B-Vault products sourced and manufactured in China and a 155.9% U.S. tariff burden in 2025 materially disrupting operations, delaying or canceling third-party sales projects, and threatening margin compression. Its reliance on a diversified supply chain and a 750 MW safe harbor program may cushion some risk, but the company still faces FEOC compliance uncertainty and merchant power price exposure on uncontracted revenue. The shift from an EPC model to the capital-intensive Asset Vault strategy adds financing risk, as the announced $300M preferred equity agreement does not remove dependence on third-party funding, project debt, ITC credits, and broader capital markets.