NRGV Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Vault Hldgs is positioned favorably because backlog surged to about $2.0 billion, up $650 million sequentially, with roughly 40% expected to convert into near-term revenue over the next 12 to 18 months and 60% tied to higher-margin recurring owned-and-operated projects. The 1.25 GW hyperscaler agreement, expected to generate $500 million to $600 million of revenue through the end of 2027, validates its integrated power, storage, and software platform and materially improves visibility into 2026 and 2027. Supportive fundamentals were reinforced by 2Q26 revenue of $17.4 million, 31.0% gross margin, and raised 2026 guidance to $270 million to $310 million, while cash increased to $148 million, reflecting improving execution and financial flexibility.

Energy Vault Hldgs is challenged by a business model that still depends on lumpy project delivery, as 2Q26 revenue of $17.4 million fell sequentially from $21.9 million and the company needs roughly $251 million in 2H26 to reach the midpoint of its raised $270 million to $310 million full-year 2026 guidance. Although gross margin improved to 31.0% and adjusted gross margin to 38.6%, the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $17.0 million on higher operating expenses, signaling that growth is still coming with poor near-term earnings leverage. The bear case is reinforced by severe tariff and sourcing risk, including a 155.9% U.S. tariff burden on China-sourced B-Vault products, plus the capital intensity of the Asset Vault strategy, which requires substantial upfront funding and exposes the company to financing, interest rate, and counterparty risk.