NOV (NOV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

NOV is supported by a strong backlog and improving order momentum, with 1Q26 Energy Equipment orders of $520 million producing a 0.8x book-to-bill while full-year 2026 book-to-bill is still expected near 1.0x and a $4.4 billion backlog providing near-term visibility. Its valuation also appears attractive relative to peers, trading at 8.5x/7.1x 2026E/27E EV/EBITDA versus large-cap OFS averages of 10.7x/9.4x, while solid free cash flow conversion and a 5% FCF yield reinforce downside support. The longer-term bull case is driven by international manufacturing scale, rising offshore activity beginning in 2H26, Brazil flexible pipe progress, and a 2027 capital equipment upcycle as offshore reactivations, unconventional demand, and tight service capacity should improve pricing, utilization, and margins.

NOV is facing a soft near-term operating backdrop, with 2Q26 guidance calling for EBITDA of $185-215MM and revenue down 6-8% y/y, reflecting weaker activity and reduced fixed-cost absorption across its core businesses. Energy Products and Services is the biggest drag, with EBITDA of $100-120MM down 24% y/y, while Energy Equipment also slips 8% y/y, showing that both segments are under pressure from slower drilling and completion demand. The outlook is further clouded by persistent geopolitical risk, possible supply-chain disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and customer capital discipline, which together could delay any rebound in offshore and North American markets.