NOTE Stock Forecast & Price Target

FiscalNote Holdings Inc. demonstrates a positive financial outlook due to a projected revenue of $94-100 million for FY25, with anticipated growth as the PolicyNote product gains traction. The company has significantly strengthened its balance sheet by reducing senior debt by over 60% and is expected to further enhance its financial position with the divestiture of Oxford Analytica and Dragonfly, which will alleviate approximately $30 million of debt. Additionally, management's strategic focus on cost management and improved profitability, especially following leadership changes, positions the company to potentially achieve positive free cash flow within the next 2-3 years, if growth resumes in the latter half of FY25.

FiscalNote Holdings Inc. is experiencing a decline in key financial metrics, as evidenced by its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which decreased to $107 million from $109 million year-over-year, alongside a slight decline in customer retention rates. The company is facing challenges due to anticipated divestitures, expected to yield $40 million but also resulting in much lower revenue projections for 2025, which are forecasted at $94-100 million—significantly below earlier expectations of $124 million. Furthermore, the company has a history of negative GAAP operating earnings, raising concerns about its ability to achieve and maintain meaningful profitability in the face of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.