NOTE Stock Forecast & Price Target

FiscalNote Holdings Inc. demonstrates a positive outlook due to significant operational improvements, reflected in new logo win rates increasing by 400 basis points quarter-over-quarter and a sales pipeline that grew by 45% quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, the company has experienced strong metrics such as rising annual contract values (ACVs) and multi-year deal signings exceeding double the previous year’s pace, coupled with a 20% year-over-year increase in inbound demand. Despite fluctuations in revenue retention year-over-year, the reiteration of fiscal year guidance and stabilizing core revenue trends indicate a cautiously optimistic trajectory for the company's prospects, especially with the integration of the enhanced PolicyNote AI platform.

FiscalNote Holdings Inc. has shown a concerning dip in customer retention, declining by 200 basis points to 96%, despite expectations that multi-year contracts signed in recent quarters will positively impact this metric starting in 2026. Additionally, the revenue and EBITDA guidance for Q3 2025 is projected to be flat sequentially, at $22-23 million in revenue and $2 million in EBITDA, indicating a lack of growth momentum. The combination of decreased retention rates and stagnant financial guidance raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain and grow its market position in the competitive environment of policy and market intelligence solutions.