NIKE (NKE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nike is supported by its unmatched global scale in footwear and apparel, with footwear still generating about two-thirds of sales and strong brand power across Nike, Jordan, NikeSkims, and Converse. Recent evidence of North America gross margin expansion and Greater China gross margin improvement suggests the core business is beginning to stabilize, while management’s right-sizing actions and the Pace program could add meaningful cost savings over time. Even with lower revenues and EPS estimates for FY27E, FY28E, and FY29E, the outlook remains positive because improving margins, cost discipline, and a broad international distribution footprint can support long-term earnings recovery.

Nike is facing a fundamental slowdown in its core business as revenues are guided to decline in the high single digits, while FY27E EPS of $1.15-$1.35 sits well below prior expectations and points to weaker earnings power. Although North America, EMEA, and Greater China posted gross margin expansion in the latest quarter, that improvement was partly offset by higher discounts, mix pressure, and SG&A deleverage, while Demand Creation rose only 5.4% and fell in every region but North America. The bigger concern is strategic: Jordan, Sportswear, and Greater China require deeper resets, recovery visibility is low, and management itself signaled that things may get worse before they get better, implying a longer path to sustained growth.