NHI Stock Forecast & Price Target

National Health Investors is supported by a diversified healthcare property base, meaningful private-pay exposure, and a low-levered balance sheet that could improve further as the NHC sale reduces debt from 3.8x debt/EBITDA to 2.3x pro forma. Although 2026 normalized FFOps is projected to dip 2.7% year over year, the outlook improves with 4.5% growth in 2027 and 7.8% average annual growth from 2026-2031, helped by a roughly $500mm investment pipeline and likely expansion in SHOP. The planned shift away from NHC should lower dependence on a single operator, raise senior housing exposure above 80% over time, and preserve an attractive, well-covered dividend yield backed by about $1.4 billion of liquidity.

National Health Investors is facing a less favorable fundamental setup because its 2026 FFO estimate was cut to $4.64 per share from $4.72, with normalized FFO at $4.78 excluding transaction costs, signaling weaker near-term cash generation even before reinvestment effects are fully felt. The $560 million sale of 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities lowers operator concentration and leverage from 3.8x net debt/EBITDA to 2.3x, but it also highlights uncertainty around redeploying proceeds and the possibility that the NHC rent reset could have been more accretive than the transaction outcome. Valuation appears stretched at 16.7x FactSet consensus 2026E AFFO and a 52% premium to consensus NAV, while risks from operator concentration, RIDEA exposure, reimbursement disruption, and interest rates could pressure results further.